The CDM's missing billions

According to World Bank figures, the global carbon market was “worth” $142 billion in 2010. Most of this number relates to financial speculation on permits in the EU Emissions Trading System. The value of the money that goes to CDM projects continues to decrease. The Bank officially claims it was $1.5 billion in 2010, its lowest level since the Kyoto Protocol entered into force in 2005. However, the real figure for 2010 may be closer to $300 million.

The difference between the official and "actual" figure was explained by the Mobilizing Climate Finance report, leaked to The Guardian. It notes that

The value of transactions in the primary CDM market – the largest offset market by far – totalled around $27 billion in 2002-10, which is estimated to have been associated with around $125 billion in low-emission investment. Since the bulk of transactions are forward purchase agreements with payment on delivery, actual financial flows through the CDM have actually been lower, about $5.4 billion through 2010.

The World Bank's official figures can be recalculated with these "actual financial flows" as follows:

Year	WB Official	WB actual
2010	1.5	0.3
2009	2.7	0.54
2008	6.5	1.3
2007	7.4	1.48
2006	5.8	1.16
2005	2.6	0.52

Figures are in $ billions